Foreign Policy Expert Dr. Tuğrul Çamaş writes about the impacts of climate change on human life, defense industry, and war strategies
Climate change affects human life in every area, including the defense industry and war strategies. Changes occurring in different parts of the globe due to global warming cause the general climatic conditions of land, island, and sea regions to change.
This situation leads to significant changes in the geostrategic sense for states and all elements and components of geography. In this sense, humanity is making substantial efforts to adapt to the new situations and conditions caused by climate change while fighting against it.
The most important reality of today and the future is that sectors that cannot adapt to the new process will disappear under the destructive effects of the climate crisis. Of course, this situation will affect the national defense infrastructure and the defense industry as a sector. Therefore, states should see the green transformation and adaptation of the national defense and defense industry infrastructure to new conditions as a historical and strategic move and take necessary steps as soon as possible.
It is possible to directly detect and see the impact of climate change on war strategies and the armies of warring countries in the axis of geography-climate change today. The Russia-Ukraine war is a concrete example that needs to be analyzed in this sense. Today, many of the vast plains we call the Eastern European plains where war occurs between the two countries consists of swamps, forests, and steppes. Difficult- to-cross rivers, lakes, wetlands, and swamp areas are geographical factors that make this geography challenging. Even the Russians, who established the first strong state organization among the Slavic nations living in the western parts of these lands for centuries, could only transform the Moscow Principality into the Russian Tsardom in 1547.
The geographical conditions of the region have been more challenging for those coming from outside than for the region’s inhabitants. The most concrete example of this is Hitler’s Germany, which had the world’s strongest army in the first half of the 20th century. Despite being much superior to the Soviet army, the German army could not reach the Caspian oil and the Caucasus and could not control Leningrad, Moscow, and Stalingrad. Apart from the mistakes made in war strategy and other dynamics, the main reasons include the soil turning into mud or swamp with the air warming in April and May in the mentioned geography. While it is said that Hitler Germany’s army was defeated by the cold winter conditions the power that defeated it was the soil that turned into mud with the melting of ice in April and May, which was covered with ice and snow between November-April and was in a permafrost state. This land captured Hitler’s ground army and all his armored units, and the Soviet military, which fought at home, had the chance to destroy the German army stuck in the swamp using guerrilla warfare.
On the other hand, the German logistics stuck in the mud could not reach Stalingrad and the front line, leading the German army to remain passive on the front line and to remain as the defending side instead of the attacking side. This situation helped the Russians win the war on the Stalingrad front and forced the Germans to defend in Berlin. The war in this challenging geography of the Second World War is a striking example of how much the climatic conditions affected the course of the war.
Today, a similar situation arises on a smaller scale with a geopolitical-based war between the West and Russia. With climate change, seasonal changes and transitions are experienced in a different time frame than they should be in many parts of the world and in the Eastern European plains. Here, the situation caused by climate change is as follows; the soil that should start to freeze in November is not freezing during this period and may not be frozen even when February arrives. The regional earth, which should be in its state in April-May under normal climate conditions, already shows this state within February, becoming muddy and creating swamp areas. Today, while solutions exist to operate military vehicles on the ground in cold conditions, a final solution has not yet been found for solving the issue with mud, and often, tanks get stuck in the ground.
Russia’s war strategies and plans were developed with a mentality free from the climatic conditions of the period when the war started. While the Russian tanks, which landed in the field in February and March and weighed approximately 50 tonnes, should have moved routinely on permafrost soil, this did not happen, and the tanks got stuck in the mud. Of course, this situation should not mean that the Russian army is helpless. The Russians, who have a thousand years of state history in this geography even though it has been interrupted, have alternative means of warfare as they are well aware of the conditions dictated to them by the geography. One of these combat vehicles is the Ka-52 helicopter, called “Alligator,” living in wetlands and swampy areas. Ka-52s, a Russian reconnaissance and attack helicopter, were ready for use before the Ukrainian war. These helicopters, called “Alligators,” can strike armored and unarmoured vehicles, manpower, and air targets on the battlefield. Suitable for use in the conditions of the Eastern European plains, these helicopters flew close to the ground and served as effective tools of the Russian war strategy where tanks could not. In this war, Russia could not use tanks as effectively as it wanted due to the conditions related to climate change. The decrease in the period in which the soil preserves its permafrost feature due to climate change causes the war season to shorten for the Russian army and obliges the use of short and medium-range missiles. In addition to all these, in conditions where tanks can be moved less, but the main element of guerrilla warfare, human beings, can move more easily, the Ukrainian army has put shoulder-fired missiles into use as a war strategy, among other reasons. Against heavy vehicles stuck in the mud, the Ukrainian army, dynamically mobile and equipped with shoulder-fired guided weapons, could provide strong resistance. These missiles have been an effective defensive and even offensive weapon against helicopters, both in the air and close to the ground, and against armored units, the most important elements of ground operations. On the other hand, the Russian army, which hit the heating and energy infrastructure of Ukrainian cities during the winter months, has activated a war strategy that will break the resistance of the Ukrainian defense. Again, in the following period, the conditions created by climate change will play a decisive role in the developments experienced in the war process in the Ukrainian territories east of the Dnieper River.
The consequences of global climate change due to global warming on the plains of Eastern Europe is an extremely important example of how and why Russia should change its war strategy during the Russia-Ukraine war. However, this situation should not be seen only as an issue faced by the Russian army. The effects of climate change will be different in different geographies. The transformation of the desert area on the Jordan-Saudi Arabia border into a huge lake due to excessive rainfall in November 2022 shows how great contrasts these effects can include. This will be a much more complex and challenging process for Turkey. Since Turkey is located on a peninsula where very different geographical and climatic conditions meet or intersect, at the junction of three continents, each region will be affected differently by the consequences of climate change. Turkey should be prepared for possible disasters and all other situations due to climate change. These preparations should also be evaluated regarding defense and national security infrastructure. The new conditions that Turkey, which is surrounded by seas on three sides, should foresee from its “Blue Homeland” strategy, what kind of changes global climate change will cause in the Mediterranean, Marmara Sea, and the Black Sea, and how the defense infrastructure will be affected by this situation are extremely important issues that cannot be postponed. Again, how effectively Turkey, which uses UCAV and UAV technology at the highest level, can use these technologies in sudden weather changes and how these and similar equipment will operate under conditions of climate change are extremely important issues. In an era of conflict and crisis, the Turkish defense infrastructure must urgently find answers to these questions and update its national security concept accordingly. Moreover, no one can say that the efforts to destabilize the region and the country on the outer peripheries of Turkey’s borders, which is almost the only stable country in the region without war, will not be confronted with a scenario similar to the Ukraine-Russia war and by the hand of a subcontractor country.
In this context, although the threats that Turkey will face are very different, one of the issues that should be emphasized first and foremost is that Turkey, as the country where the water resources that feed the Middle East are located, will be exposed to demographic mobility due to a possible water and food crisis in the Middle East. In this case, the migration movement of millions of people in a short period of time will make it impossible to protect the borders. It will also be the cause of political instability. The fact that Western Rome first became unstable due to irregular migrations and then collapsed and took its place on the dusty shelves of history is a historical example that explains this situation. This situation will lead to major crises, wars, and conflicts between countries and regions. In addition to other reasons, the armed clashes between the Taliban forces and the Iranian army over the sharing of the waters of the Helmand River in the desert area between Afghanistan and Iran, in which mortars are also used, is a concrete example. Political instability and the collapse of states may occur, especially in Africa, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean basin. Turkey will be the country that will be most affected by this situation. For this reason, considering that climate change is a global problem, it is necessary to strengthen the intelligence and security infrastructure and increase its resilience in order to maintain stability in nearby geographies or otherwise.
The second issue is the military and strategic reassessment of Turkey’s geopolitics under climate change conditions and the identification of advantages and disadvantages in this direction. The new conditions that have emerged or will emerge need to be evaluated regarding land, naval, and air force combat capability and adapted to new conditions. It is of utmost importance for our country, which is surrounded by seas on three sides, to operate effectively and efficiently in unforeseen ecological threats such as sea water temperature, change in water level, mucilage, and similar unforeseen ecological threats in near and far seas. In particular, the conditions of the harbors where the naval bases are located should be adapted to climate change, and these bases should be redesigned, or a, b, and c plans should be created based on the fact that they will not be possible to use these bases in cases such as sudden water riIn, in this sense, floating naval bases should be planned. Again, studies should be carried out to increase the predictability of using diplomatic and military measures in coordination in favor of the problems with Greece in the Sea of Islands due to the continental shelf. It is necessary to make the warships and submarines of the navy, especially the naval bases, resistant to sudden weather events and sea storms, and the defense concept should be protected in the most difficult weather conditions.
Again, it should not be forgotten that a resilient navy will be an effective tool against an enemy navy with low resistance against sudden weather events during a possible war.
Suppose it is necessary to exemplify the situation regarding land forces first. In that case, it is an important issue how the capabilities of military equipment and personnel are designed according to the changes in the surface structure of Turkey and the old climatic conditions in the new surface structure will be. The softening in the air due to climate change in the provinces where cold and harsh winters are experienced will lead to the enrichment and diversification of vegetation in this region, which is an anthropological steppe. Again, the softening of climatic conditions will cause changes in soil structure and vegetation cover. The cold that defeated us on the Caucasus front in the First World War will be replaced by warm weather, creating a more favorable war condition for the enemy. In our more southern cities, the desert climate will become more effective, while the water level of the rivers will determine how the fortification units will operate. The increase in temperature level and sudden weather events will adversely affect the working conditions of vehicles and equipment. It is crucial that military personnel are trained in flood and inundation conditions. That equipment and vehicles are tested in the same and even in scorching conditions of sandstorms. It is necessary to increase the capacity of military personnel to combat diseases that will occur due to new conditions and to strengthen the health infrastructure of the army. Building new military bases and structures compatible with climate change conditions is inevitable.
Because the capacity to carry out operations will decrease in case of temperature increases, military personnel and equipment, especially weapons, should be able to operate in warmer, drier, or wetter conditions. In the defense industry, solar-powered or electric vehicles, in other words, vehicles that can generate energy on-site, should be activated. It must be recognized that the routes included in war plans and maps today will be flooded and rendered unusable tomorrow. The operation to advance by land may now have to be carried out by the navy. No one dares to say that the Amik Plain will not be flooded again.
Another issue is that a very important piece of land will remain uncontrolled and even unclaimed, and the enemy will defeat many states without a war because they will not be able to fight against disease and climate change. Who will control these lands and how must take its place in the security concept.
Again, urgently establishing a military data collection mechanism is a critical issue. The atmospheric and naval data obtained will give important signals about the future. Analyzing the management of this data will provide great advantages as a new area of expertise, and armies with strong data will become stronger against others. Finally, Turkey, which uses UAV and UCAV technology effectively, should know how these technologies can react to changing weather conditions or sudden weather events during flight. The lifespan of military equipment should be redefined. To avoid the unpredictable consequences of the climate crisis during a war, it is necessary to identify the risks and threats posed by climate change as much as possible in terms of defense and war strategies and make infrastructural preparations in line with these determinations. In order not to experience these and similar situations during wartime, it is essential to establish a Climate Change Command within the TAF within the necessary administrative units. Again, urgently establishing a military data collection mechanism is a very important issue. The atmospheric and naval data obtained will give important signals about the future. Analyzing the management of this data will provide great advantages as a new area of expertise, and armies with strong data will become stronger against others. Finally, Turkey, which uses UAV and UCAV technology effectively, should know how these technologies can react to changing weather conditions or sudden weather events during flight. The lifespan of military equipment should be redefined.
To avoid the unpredictable consequences of the climate crisis during a war, it is necessary to identify the risks and threats posed by climate change as much as possible in terms of defense and war strategies and make infrastructural preparations in line with these determinations. In order not to experience these and similar situations during wartime, it is essential to establish a Climate Change Command within the TAF within the necessary administrative units.
Again, urgently establishing a military data collection mechanism is a very important issue. The atmospheric and naval data obtained will give important signals about the future. Analyzing the management of this data will provide great advantages as a new area of expertise, and armies with strong data will become stronger against others. Finally, Turkey, which uses UAV and UCAV technology effectively, should know how these technologies can react to changing weather conditions or sudden weather events during flight. The lifespan of military equipment should be redefined.
To avoid the unpredictable consequences of the climate crisis during a war, it is necessary to identify the risks and threats posed by climate change as much as possible in terms of defense and war strategies and make infrastructural preparations in line with these determinations. In order not to experience these and similar situations during wartime, it is essential to establish a Climate Change Command within the TAF within the necessary administrative units.
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