While the adventure of raising interest rates has come to an end for the Fed, they are experiencing a justified pride in lowering inflation to 4%, although they have left the door ajar, I would say
At the meeting on June 14th, after a long hiatus, the Fed officials who kept the interest rates steady at 5.25% fulfilled the expectations of the global markets. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish tone after the meeting, ensuring the US dollar maintains a strong stance globally. The Fed, gradually approaching the 2% inflation target, emphasized that tightening will not solely occur through interest rate hikes by pointing out the employment market. The emphasis on credit tightening and increasing borrowing costs brought along the notion of actions to be taken according to future data. The dollar index, which is important both technically and psychologically, continued to maintain its upward potential after finding support at the critical level of 102.27.
The ECB signaled it will continue its battle with inflation by keeping on raising interest rates.
Announcing its policy rate at 4% with a 25 basis point increase, the ECB managed to pull the inflation data below the previous level, though it announced 6.1%, parallel to expectations. The fact that the Fed has hit the brakes and the ECB still has a way to go in rate hikes has paved the way for the Euro-USD pair to make upward attacks. I believe that the rise towards the 200-week exponential moving average, which is at 1.1070, will continue a little longer. If this level is exceeded and weekly closings occur above it, I think that the upward perception will gain momentum and the increases will accelerate towards the 1.1375 resistance. After the balance search at the market’s focus level of 1.1070, partial profit sales can be experienced in the pair according to developing macro events. In such a scenario, I would like to point out that the 1.0750 support continues to maintain its relevance.
Gold, having trouble sustaining levels above $2030, continues to seek balance amid modest profit-taking.
As the US dollar reasserts its global dominance, the precious metal experienced sell-offs within the $2030 – $2070 range, leading it into a horizontal band movement around an average price of $1945. The modest easing of geopolitical risks, a global downtrend in inflation, and the Fed’s hawkish stance have collectively prompted a drop in gold prices. The tight price range between $1945 and $1935 warrants close attention. Any breach of these support levels could potentially set the stage for a more pronounced bearish trend. In such an event, the primary support level of $1895 would become the focus for investors. However, it’s crucial to remember that if the $1945 – $1935 support level continues to enforce a downward trend in the market, we could see reactionary buying in the precious metal. My belief is that any potential uptrends would likely be capped by the $1985 resistance.
Indications of a return to orthodox financial policies and the stress on rational decision-making have opened the door to a brief surge in the Borsa Istanbul.
In the wake of the general elections, the announcement of Mehmet Şimşek’s appointment and the new leadership of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) sparked interest in the international press. This generated the perception that a cycle of interest rate hikes might commence, attracting foreign capital into the country. The Stock Exchange, having soared above the 5700 level to set new all-time highs, did experience some profit-taking. However, I maintain that the medium to longterm target remains at 7200. I would suggest that any potential retractions will likely find support in the 5135 – 5050 range, with buyers stepping back in at these levels to drive the index back up. The currency, which has long hovered around the 19.50 mark, has begun to seek equilibrium above the 23.50 level in response to signals of economic normalization.
The crypto space continues to seek direction, with Bit coin firmly in the driver’s seat.
The Federal Reserve’s decision ignited a wave of high volatility for Bitcoin, which remains under pressure, unable to break past the significant 27,500 level. As long as Bitcoin lingers below this level—which carries both technical and psychological weight— and in the absence of any positive news from the crypto ecosystem, the bias towards a downward trajectory remains strong. I feel compelled to highlight the key support level at 24,600. While there’s a high chance that any dips could be contained around this level, any breach could potentially fuel a steeper descent. On the other hand, if Bitcoin can muster the strength to overcome the 27,500 resistance and sustain a weekly close above it, it could pave the way for a rally towards the 35,000 resistance level.
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