The conflict between Israel and Palestine has laid the foundation for a surge in assets attracting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, significant data fluctuations in the US influenced pricing
Examining US macroeconomic data, non-farm employment figures were reported at 336K, surpassing both expectations and previous figures. Retail sales data fell by 0.7% from its prior level but exceeded forecasts, leading to dollar-favorable shifts. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a notable rise to 9.61M, exceeding both anticipations and prior data. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was reported at 49, surpassing expectations and the previous figure, despite being under the crucial 50 mark. The Service PMI was slightly below projections at 50.1. The ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI matched forecasts at 53.6 but was below its prior level. Average hourly wage data mirrored the earlier figure at 0.2% but fell short of projections. A marginal uptick in unemployment appeared as 3.8%. US inflation data, monitored closely by the Fed and global markets, aligned with prior figures but was slightly above predictions at 3.7%.
Brighter outlook in the Eurozone compared to the UK
In Germany, the driving economy of the Eurozone, inflation data showed a decrease compared to the previous level. The announced CPI came in line with expectations at 4.5%. Producer inflation continued to contract at -0.2%. Looking at the inflation announced in the region, it appeared as 4.3%, in line with expectations but below the previous level. In the UK, industrial production recorded a sharp contraction and took its place on the calendar as -0.7%. Manufacturing production increased compared to the previous level but was announced far below expectations at -0.8%. Inflation data in the UK was parallel to the previous level but was announced above expectations at 6.7%. The decline in the unemployment rate produced positive signals with 4.2%, while GDP data was announced above the previous level and in line with expectations at 0.5%.
Central Banks hold steady in Asian Markets
The Australian central bank maintained its interest rate at 4.10%. Australia’s unemployment rate was reported at 3.6%, below both forecasts and the earlier figure. The New Zealand central bank maintained its policy interest rate at 5.50%. In China, the unemployment rate stood at 5%, under both expectations and prior data. Third-quarter GDP was 4.9% year-on-year, below earlier figures but above predictions. Inflation figures were beneath both forecasts and prior data at 0.0%. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI contracted to 50.6. The PBOC’s minimum lending rate was reported at 3.45%.
Domestic markets: a period of calm
Domestic markets saw subdued data activity, with the Istanbul Stock Exchange’s direction- seeking trend dominating the month. Inflation data was below expectations at 61.53% but exceeded the previous figure. A decline in industrial production was reported at 3.1%. Another key metric, retail sales data, saw a downturn, with figures reported at -4.7%, substantially below earlier levels. After experiencing profit-taking at peak values, the Stock Exchange steadied around the 7350 support level and sought a partial equilibrium. Escalating geopolitical tensions due to the Israel-Palestine conflict intensified pressures on the Stock Exchange, and a reduced risk appetite furthered sales. October noted exits by foreign investors from the Istanbul Stock Exchange, currently seeking stability around the 8000 point mark. The USD/ TRY exchange rate maintained its steady trend, hovering near the 28 level.
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