Against all the contrary expectations, Turkey’s growth performance in 2017 was fantastic; reaching a record 7.4 percent according to yearly figures released on 29 March. This makes Turkey the fastest growing country in the world after China. It also goes against expert analyses on the Turkish economy that were being made in the beginning of 2017
Assessments regarding the economy made earlier this year are similar to the more pessimistic predictions that were being thrown around in early 2017; a situation that partly owes to the fluctuations in global markets. However, Turkey’s growth performance will likely still beat expectations.
This situation is best described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the Lebanese professor who authored the books “Black Swan” and “Antifragile”. Taleb, who visited Turkey in May, said “Whatever happens, Turkey manages to stay on its feet,” in an interview with the Haberturk newspaper’s Sefer Yüksel. As a matter of fact, the IMF upgraded its end-year prediction for Turkey’s 2018 growth rate to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in its report titled “Global Prospects and Policy Challenges”. The organization’s forecast for Turkey’s growth rate in 2019 is 4 percent. These rates are fairly “good”, given the global economic climate. Additionally, the size and sectoral diversity of Turkey’s economy allows different industries to gain prominence as promoters of growth at different times. In some periods, construction prevails over other industries while the automotive industry or tourism become the stronger sector driving growth at other times.
Tourism revenues to exceed USD 30 billion
A good example is the tourism industry; which, in the past two years, has done poorly for various reasons, but is about to hit a record this year. Tourism industry professionals’ union TÜRSAB President Firuz Bağlıkaya announced that they expected to have hosted a record number of 40 million tourists this year, predicting that the income from tourism in 2018 will exceed USD 30 billion. Likewise, exports in May increased by 7.3 percent in comparison with the same month last year, reaching USD 11.8 billion, while exports in the last 12 months amounted to 140 billion dollars.
On a different note, as Turkey maintain a sustainable economic growth rate above that of other emerging markets, it also aims to bring its share in the world economy to 1.5 percent within five years.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently said: “In an environment of rising protectionist voices at a global level, we will continue on by strengthening our economic structure based on the open market and competition; we will not get caught up in temporary winds.” These words indicate that Turkey remains committed to integration in global markets and maintaining closer interaction with trade partners.
Turkey’s billions of dollars’ worth mega-projects are also noteworthy. The construction of the new Istanbul Airport, which will be the world’s largest airport when it is completed, is continuing at full speed, with almost days left for the first flight to take off. The Çanakkale 1915 Bridge, which will become functional in 2023, will be the longest suspension bridge in the world.
