According to the latest report from Clarksons Research, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by ninety percent compared to pre-conflict levels due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East
Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of Clarksons Group, has been closely monitoring the impact of Middle East conflict on global shipping markets. Their latest update, released on April seventh, highlights that average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to just eleven over the past five days, compared to around one hundred twenty-five before the conflict. In the past week, seventy-five percent of transits were outbound from the Gulf, while ‘non-mainstream’ vessels accounted for approximately sixty percent of total transits.
LPG carriers remain seventy-six percent below typical levels and bulkcarriers eighty-five percent below, although the first LNG carrier transit in over a month was recently recorded, and small increases have emerged in other segments such as crude tankers and containerships.
Approximately ten crude tankers (carrying seventeen million barrels worth two billion dollars) passed through the Strait in the past seven days, compared to one hundred thirty-five vessels (one hundred five million barrels, seven point three billion dollars) in a typical week in two thousand twenty-five.
Crude exports from Yanbu have risen to four to five million barrels per day, with the pipeline now at capacity and about twenty-five VLCCs waiting or en route. US oil and gas loading activity also remains strong, with westbound transits around the Cape of Good Hope for tankers and LPG carriers up seventy percent and sixty percent respectively versus pre-conflict levels.
Globally, eleven percent of oil and six percent of gas supply remain offline, along with three percent of refining capacity.
An estimated three thousand three hundred vessels are still in the Gulf (two percent of global tonnage, valued at forty-one billion dollars). Excluding local traffic, about eight percent of VLCC and three percent of product tanker/VLGC tonnage remains ‘stuck’ in the Gulf.
Charter rates for tankers and gas carriers remain elevated despite lower cargo volumes, supported by alternative supply sources, increased voyage distances, disruption, repositioning, and inefficiency.
VLCC earnings are at a record two hundred one thousand dollars per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates, though slightly down from late March, remain close to record highs.
Gas carrier spot rates are also strong, with LNG carrier spot rates at eighty-eight thousand dollars per day (twice the two thousand twenty-five average) and VLGC earnings on the US-Japan route at seventy-three thousand dollars per day, twenty-five percent above the five-year average.
Bulkcarrier markets continue to be impacted regionally, while container freight rates have risen due to higher bunker costs. The SCFI Far East-Europe rate rose twenty percent in March before easing three percent last week.
Crude oil transportation costs in the Atlantic have softened slightly but remain well above pre-conflict levels.
Before the conflict, twenty percent of global oil supply, nineteen percent of LNG trade, and twenty-eight percent of LPG volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
