Prof Dr Sajid Mehmood Shahzad commented on the ceasefire in Iran for MarineDeal News. Prof Dr Shahzad Vice-Chancellor, Minhaj University Lahore is a retired naval officers who has held many key positions in his naval career and has proved a role model for his successors. He gained a doctorate from the University of the Punjab succeeding MPhil with top distinction from National Defense University (NDU), Islamabad in International Relations. He has a strong understanding of Maritime Affairs and consistently writes on Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs.
Do you think this ceasefire will be permanent?
Yes, It is more likely to be permanent because both of the Parties involved in conflict have realized that War and destruction is not the answer. They have also realized that this is the “War of Attrition” with no clear ending. Both the parties have suffered significant losses with the US losing almost 10 fifth-generation stealth aircraft and heavily upgraded fourth-generation fighters, closure of the strait of Hormuz to target Iranian military infrastructure, on the other hand Iran has suffered major losses in Infrastructure, nuclear facilities, energy sector and leadership. Keeping these things in mind, both the parties have agreed to sit on the negotiating table.
We have seen that Pakistan has come to the forefront in this process. What is the reason for this?
Time and again Pakistan has proved itself as a responsible state offering its good offices to the conflicting parties. Pakistan had relatively high stakes in the conflict compared to any other country in the entire region. Pakistan was involved in the conflict from day 1 as it understood the consequences of hybrid warfare especially after the May Crisis and so it did not let the conflict go beyond borders. If the war had prolonged Pakistan would have definitely experienced a severe spillover effect due to proximity with Iran. On the forefront this might look like a ceasefire between only two countries but deep down Pakistan also sustained prompted religious harmony amongst the various sects. Pakistan is the only country in the region having good relations with China-USA.
Since the U.S. and Israel couldn’t win the war, does that mean they lost? And since Iran didn’t lose, does that mean it won?
In war there are neither winners nor any losers. Keeping in account the Iran-Iraq war that lasted nearly a decade and the US-Afghan war that lasted for two decades, similarly this conflict could have prolonged for an indefinite period. Learning lessons from the war mentioned before, both the countries sitting at the table have realized that destruction is not the answer.
From Turkey’s perspective, what is your take on this war?
Turkey has always proved itself as a responsible state, keeping in account the peace efforts it made in resolving the Russia-Ukraine War. Similarly, Turkiye's foreign affairs policy has always been peace oriented.
Would you say that the Gulf countries, in particular, are the losers of this war?
Of course, the permanent loss of US bases in Bahrain and UAE has brought the security architecture of the United States in the region to the ground. Whereas Iran has emerged unexpectedly great at the end of this conflict might have more leverage over the US while negotiating.
