Risk appetite on a global basis declined for a variety of reasons, including the upcoming U.S. presidential election, increased geopolitical risks and military activity, and the spread of monkeypox outside the African continent.
The U.S. macroeconomic data calendar was a source of negative news flow. The deepening of the euro-dollar exchange rate paved the way for upward attacks on the euro-dollar parity. With the support it received from the 1.0840 key pivot level, which I highlighted earlier, the upward momentum towards the 1.10 psychological band increased. It should be noted that in order for the bullish perception to regain momentum, we need to see a monthly close above this level. The main resistance level of 1.1260 should be watched for possible gains. On a break above this level, the 1.1350 level may start to make its presence felt in the market. Although unlikely, in case of a partial retracement, the 1.0950 – 1.0840 band remains in the market. If we look at the GBP-USD pair, the pair, which found buyers at the main support level of 1.27, extended its upward attacks and rose towards 1.30. I would like to emphasize that the bullish perception is maintained and the pound may continue to appreciate against the dollar.
The sharp rise in the fear index with the increase in risk aversion supported the new highs in gold ounces. The 2700 level could be targeted in the short term, especially if prices hold above the 2350-2450 range. On the silver ounce side, the critical main resistance level of $30 should be carefully monitored. A possible break above this level can be seen as the start of a new rally. In the event of a sharp rise, the long term target could be $54.
As the cryptocurrency selloff intensified, there were signs that the bull market was coming to an end
In particular, after the move by the Bank of Japan, there were sharp declines in the markets, while the decline on the BTC side paved the way for other cryptocurrencies to come under selling pressure. I would like to remind you that the 59500 pivot level is critical for BTC, both technically and psychologically. I would like to point out that if the price continues to remain below this level, there is a possibility of deeper declines. In possible bearish scenarios, the major support levels of 54600 – 51900 – 48500 should be carefully monitored. On the ETH side, the 2770 level should be closely watched. Any price below this level could add to the selling pressure. In such a case, the 2485 support comes to the fore. A possible break of this support may deepen the bearish move. I can mention that the rallies may be limited to the 2770 major resistance level.
Looking at the domestic markets, foreign interest in TL-denominated assets continued, while government and private sector bonds continued to attract demand.
On the Borsa İstanbul side, profit sales over 11 thousand entered the search for balance at the 9700 main pivot level. On a sectoral basis, the defense industry, food – retail and alternative – renewable energy sectors come to the fore. As long as the CBRT continues its orthodox monetary policy on rational grounds and continues its determined fight against inflation, I think the demand for TL-denominated assets can continue for about 5-6 months with the effect of falling CDS premiums.
In a nutshell, the US economy, on the brink of an economic crisis, has two options. First, the Fed will either let the ship sink without doing anything and let the 1920s crisis repeat itself, or it will start to cut interest rates and increase dollar issuance, then dollar inflation will increase and the big crisis will be postponed for 3-5 years. It is important to remember that in any case, the global crisis and World War 3 are at the door. It may not be ringing the bell, but it is at the door.
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