Alp Kırıkkanat – The Possible Piracy Tactics Of The Near Future At The Sea

MDN İstanbul

We’ve been sighting many piracy activities in mostly Somalia territorial waters and the Northwestern Indian Ocean for last fifteen years. There are many economic and social reasons which can be explained for these activities. The piracy actions at the sea are determined sometimes on approaching waters, sometimes on the high seas, hundreds of miles away from the coastals. As a matter of fact, we can think that these actions need collective efforts among the enormous criminal organizations having assets and capabilities to provide the pirates, equipments, vessels and weapons although we can’t say that there is admittedly a superior mind behind these piracy actions as of now. What is the truth ? We should clarify this issue not to toss up because it seems that the consist of the piracy tactics can lead to change, considering collaboration among the pirates and terrorist groups.

Nowadays some Africa analysts express the pirates in this area are in accordance with some terrorist groups like ISIS or Al-Shabaab.  Taking this opinion much further, it is stated that there is a business network among them. Pirates become businessmen and get materials from overseas for the terrorist. In return the terrorists do not interfere with the pirates’ actions.[1] As for the terrorists, the pirates are one of the economic sources. Of course, there are not exact indications showing us what happens in this context due to the chaotic enviroments. We can only try to understand the events from the open sources. It seems that it is feared the possibility of increasing the relationships between Al-Shabaab and the pirates in the coastal of Horn of African though some experts claim that the number of pirate attacks plummeted. But according to the threat assessment in weekly report period 29 May-07 June 2017 of a maritime security service, there have been succesful actions by the pirates and possible Al-Shabaab terrorists in Somali.[2]  Determinations and comments can be changed from day to day.

The maritime experiences showed us that the pirates use basic tactical plans at the sea for the victims. Nevertheless, glancing at the past years and nowadays we see there are many old ships, boats or skiffs used to approache the vessels. On the other side, shipping companies take precautions and security measures as well as the naval presences are increased by  many Combined Maritime Forces in the Gulf of Aden and nearby Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Bab-el-Mandeb is one of the arterial points for transit passing of the world trade. The combined naval operations at the sea will admittedly get the piracy-terrorist actions under the control. But the presence possibility of the terrorist organizations suchlike Al-Shabaab at the sea can lead to change the parameters. Armed robbery, crew abduction, hijacking, piracy attack, suspicious activities seen as the piracy activities may turn into more complex terrorist assaults at the sea for the vessels, the maritime forces and also coastal facilities. We can suddenly face the change of the assault purpose and the possibility of using these groups by the new cold war actors. The conventional measures are no longer a part of the risk assessment. Cyber threat is increasing.

Maritime security always requires a team effort and needs working closely. But from now and then, to patrol the critical areas or 2.5 million square miles of ocean with just a few dozen ships by the western maritime forces will not be efficient by itself. In the next period it should be taken into consideration that the style of piracy-terrorist actions can change and these actions can even head towards, for instance, maritime forces or the ports . As a result, I have no hesitation in stating that it is time to think what we will do if the concept of the terrorist actions change. I think we should assess the threat zone so as to involve approaching courses, the vessels, maritime forces, coastal/the ports and their facilities in the scope not to get into trouble in the near future.

For instance, it is possible to change a ship’s direction by faking a GPS signal to dupe its onboard navigation system. They can both create some unexceptional circumstances for the vessels in order to make them be unable to manoeuvre as ‘the vessel not under command’ by floating ropes only and they can use the cyber attack methods for the vessels in order to make for the same object. But it’s seen that the primary precaution for the next future surprises is to find a remedy to close the cyber security gaps on many critical onboard systems of the vessels and on physical security systems of the coastal/ports facilities. We should be one step ahead of them for taking the precautions. I do not even want to think that a vessel become as ‘the vessel not under command’ or as ‘the vessel restricted in her ability to manoeuvre’ at the mouth of the harbour or on the high seas by the cyber attacks. So it can be more easy to get on board and/or to create the panic or the chaos.

Finally, it is not a good sign that there are some symptons of collaboration among the pirates and terrorist groups for near future. Considered the strange relationships, the cyber risk can evenly increase. We should think of many scenarios for the best threat and risk assessments including the cyber and the conventional precautions for all vessels. We should be ready for more complex attacks.

[1] https://www.vox.com/world/2017/7/13/15948184/pirates-terrorists-somalia-isis-shabaab

[2] https://www.sguardian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/WEEKLY-ASSESSMENT-REPORT-07-JUN-17.pdf

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